July 18-22, TA for STI

July 18-22, TA for STI

• Trend - Side
• Momentum - Moderate Flat, Directionless where all indicators point flat. 
• Resistance - 3100
• Support - 3070
• Candlestick - NA
• Volume -  Moderate
• Pattern - A big Symmetrical Triangle is forming - a bullish pattern. 

 STI is trending into a narrow band. What I would like to highlight is the Symmetrical Triangle Formation toward the support and resistance line above. Symmetrical Triangle is a high probability Bullish Signal, of course coupling with the battle of US Debt Ceiling on 2 Aug. Indices are trending directionless, interestingly, all indicators show the straight horizontal line too.

If the world can't afford Greece Default, US Debt Ceiling should be raised too. Those uptrending stocks will gain more momentum, once the news is positive.

Who are the TA uptrending stocks?
- 3 SGP Banks - DBS, UOB, OCBC
- 3 Shipping Builders - KepCorp, SembMar, SembCorp

July 18-22. TA for Noble Group

Jul 18 - TA for Noble Group

• Trend - Down
• Momentum - Oversold
• Support - 1.67
• Resistance - 1.80 or 20D MA (Support turn Resistance - bearish)
• Volume - 3x
• Candlestick - 1x black crow (Gap filled) - bearish 
• Pattern - Downward Slope Channel - bearish

July 15, Noble is like a "Falling Knife" dropping 4.8%, breaking 2 supports (1.87 and 1.80 respectively). From the Fibonacci Retracement, it has already dropped from the peak to about 24% range (see the chart above). If you are planning to LONG it, please forget it - as FA/TA are down trending. It has more Down side than Up. For TA trading, I would prefer OLAM (side trending) or WILMAR (up trending). 

In my last blog on Olam, I have contributed a comparison chart of Olam, Glencore, Noble and Wilmar. In this round, I will highlight the performance index for those commodity stocks. As mentioned before, Glencore (805:HK) is of value as compared to SGP cousin. Sadly, Glencore since IPO has been in down trending same as Olam and Noble. Today, Noble has finally meet the Olam line. In general, Olam and Noble is over valued compare to Glencore. So the choice is clear for you.  

July 14, FA/TA for ChinaAOil

July 14, FA-Quantitative Analysis for ChinaAOil

FA- Simple Analysis

• - NAV - 0.6445 (not yet a discounted NAV)
• - Yield - 3.3% (Average Yield)
• - PE - 11.9x ( Not an attractive PE yet)

FA - Intermediate Level Analysis

From the past 3 years, ChinaAOil has a stable Earning Growth of 10%, it is very suitable to use the Gordon Dividend Discount Model (DDM).  What is the DDM Intrinsic Value?

• - Estimated DDM Intrinsic Value - 1.28 - 1.73
• - Estimated Graham Intrinsic Value - 1.20 - 1.46

FA - Using EV/EBITDA vs PE, Entry/Exit Formula

• - EV/EDBITDA = 12, PE = 11.9x (Now, trading at Fair Value at 1.17)

FA - Qualitative Analysis,

This part is skipped. Assuming, you will spend some time to understand the business or annual report. 

Conclusion,

From the FA-Quantitative Analysis standby, ChinaAOil is now trading at Fair Value. Any level below 1.17 is a value investment for you. Next, I will cover the TA entry/Exit for ChinaAOil. 

July 14, TA for ChinaAOil

• Trend - Down
• Momentum - Oversold
• Support - 1.15
• Resistance - 1.22
• Volume - Low
• Candlestick - NA

From TA prospective, ChinaAOil is trading into narrow band. If you are interested on the 7 cents range, entry is at 1.15 and exit 1.22. I will watch the 20D MA as reference. If 20D MA is flat or cross over 50D MA, then it indicates a trend-changing, else there is possibility that it might break 1.15. For trading, it is too narrow and not that attractive. 

But as mentioned on FA, at 1.15 range. It is at FAIR VALUE. If you are looking at long term, this stock offer FAIR VALUE and Yield (3.3%). It's not a bad choice.  

July 13, TA for Cosco Corp

July 13, TA for Cosco

Trend - Down (confirmed byPrice below 50,100,200 MA, MACD still in negative boundary)
Momentum - Moderate downward
Support - 1.73
Resistance - 1.96 (lookout for 50D MA, it is resisting it).
Volume - 1.5x
Candlestick - black hammer (bullish signal)

Among SembCorp, KepCorp, SemMar and Cosco. Cosco has sign of down trending. If you want to Long it, try to enter near the Support line(1.73) along with a bullish candlestick (look for my blog TA knowledge on what to look for.) and Exit when 1.96 or 50D MA line (note: advise for short term trading only).

Jul 12, News Update - Mermaid

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1140489/1/.html

Jul 12-15, TA for Wilmar

Jul 12, TA for Wilmar

• Trend - Side -> Up trend
• Momentum - Overbought
• Resistance - 5.75 (Resistance turn Support - Bullish signal)
• Support - 5.50
• Volume - 2x (bullish sign)
• Candlestick - 1x white soldier formation.

TA for Wilmar - very good run and finally break the 5.50 resistance 6th times line with 2x volume. You will need to compute your risk/reward ratio. Personally, I will wait until it comes back to 5.50. In general, all commodity stocks are trending upward. Do watch out for GoldenAgri (Good fundamental, trading at resistance 0.705) and IndoAgri (* now trading at resistance line).

July 12-15, FA/TA for Amara

 July 12, TA for Amara

• Trend - Down
• Momentum - Oversold
• Resistance - 0.415 (weekly)
• Resistance - 0.40 (Daily)
• Support - 0.345
• Support - 0.285
• Volume - Low
• Candlestick - NA

As I mentioned before, TA is not effective against such low volatility stock. Just base on MA, it is clearly a downtrending stock. Maybe, it is important to use FA for your entry/exit reference

FA - Qualitative Analysis,

Why Revenue has dropped but yet Profit has improved?
- From the annual report 2010, this is due to the Property Project completion and risks are transferred to buyer.

Overall, I will leave it to you for industry analysis. At least, it assumes us that there is no surprise accounting.

July 12, Simple FA-Quantitative Analysis for Amara

• NAV - 0.3415 (not yet a discounted NAV)
• Yield - 1.3% (low yield)
• PE - 13x (not an attractive PE)

From a simple FA entry/exit, Amara is not yet an attractive stock to enter.

Using Intermediate FA - Intrinsic Valuation,

- DDM value for Amara is at 0.40-0.50 range
- Graham Intrinsic Valuation is at 0.40-0.51 range

Intrinsic valuation is base on future earning growth rate, it can be used for future estimation of future earning. In this case, at current value of 0.375 - it is at least below 0.40 - indicates a value ENTRY.

Using EV/EBITDA, it has a value of 20x. As mentioned in my blog, EV/EBITDA(20x) > PE (13x) is a ENTRY signal.

Conclusion,

From both TA/FA analysis, I will wait until the Price is stabilised as TA indicates further Downtrending.
When it hits the below NAV, the valuation of this stock is further enhanced.