Figure 1 : Where the containers come from?
Figure 2 : Where the port location?
Figure 3 : How is it ranked?
Figure 4 : When is the business cycle?
Figure 5 : How much is the dividend?
June 9, FA for HPH Trust,
Fundamental Analysis - Quantitative Analysis,
- NAV - US$1.0799 ( trading at 20% discounted NAV)
- PE - 27x
- EPS - US$0.03154
- Yield forecast - 5.9% (2011) and 6.6% (2012) (> inflation)
This stock has 20% discounted NAV and a yield of 5.9%. It's an value investing. Ironically, we can't compare it with Singapore PSA for fair PE comparison.
Fundamental Analysis - Qualitative Analysis,
I have extracted some information from the prospectus to recap the qualitative part of this stock. It is the world biggest container ports operating around Hong Kong and Shenzhen areas. Majority of the containers come from 4 keys regions - Yangtze River, River Pearl, Bohai and others.
I have typically extracted one risk or economic factor on container business - It is cyclical and typically Q3 and Q4 are the highest volume transaction.
Figure 6: The Yangtze River economic losses
Figure 7: Yangtze River affecting shipping line
So from the prospectus, weather is another risk for HPH Port containers volumes. Logically, this yielding stock should be quite stable and should not dive unless insider news happened or due to another global crisis.
But I suspect the drought of Yangtze River which accounted for 53.2% of HPH containers operation might have affected the fundamental. Usually, from the business cycle, Q3 and Q4 should be a high seasons for containers business.
June 9, TA for HPH Trust
Trend - Down Trend
Momentum - Oversold
Support - 0.89 broken, now forming a new support
Resistance - 0.89
Volume - Low
Candlestick - 2 black crows
From TA prospective, it is an ugly chart with 2 black crows indicate Bearish. But if you look at volume, it is low as compare to average. Next, it is to check it's new support is where? before you execute your entry.
