May 4- Classical Support Turn Resistance - SGX and GoldenAgri

May 4 - TA for SGX and GoldenAgri

Both stocks have similarity in nature, I explained as below
1- Trend - Both of trending down (confirmation by MACD -ve range, Price below all Moving Average 20,50,100,200D
2- Momentum - Oversold
3- Both have classical Support turn Resistance

• GoldenAgri  - Support @ 0.635
• SGX - Support @7.32

4- Volume - Both have above average (1.3x) selling pressure

Support turn resistance is a critical level for a stock. Once it is broken, it will usually test its new support.   Ironically, to break a support it doesn't need HIGH/LOW volume and to break a resistance it needs HIGH volume. Both seem to have a side trading pattern. Meanwhile, GE result is important for the STI direction and market seems to anticipate a lesser vote for ruling party-PAP.

May 16-20, FA / TA for Semb Corp

 FA for Semb Corp - Intrinsic Valuation - using Gordon Dividend Discount Model.

In my blog, I try to give example WHY you are buying a stock base on FA-Quantitative Analysis - On Simple Entry Rules using Asset Approach, Income Approach or Yielding Approach. Those data like NAV, PE or % yield can be used quickly to identity "Discount Value" Investment without using any calculator.  

In this current STI trending, there is some limitation if you are using this method for your investment strategy. I have highlighted on the blog below, there are some value investing. However, you can see mostly from REIT. 

Next Method using Fundamental Analysis - Quantitative Analysis - Gordon Dividend Discount Model - Constant Growth Approach. This is much more complex (you can get the formula from Internet easily), as it uses more financial ratio data for calculating the Intrinsic Valuation of a constant growth stock. Personally, intrinsic valuation can be subjective as it depends on a few variable data. Those data can be different from each research analysts house. What I am trying to do is to reverse engineering those data range, and possibly get near to those variance. 

Semb Corp - is selected as it has constant growth model. From a stability standpoint, it is a good stock to invest. The stock has a constant earning yielding growth rate of 11%. Thereby, it has an intrinsic value of 5.54 - 6.47 based on Gordon Dividend Discount Model.

1. DDM Case 1, SGD 6.47
2. DDM Case 2, SGD 6.21
3. DDM Case 3, SGD 5.54

May 15 (updated) , FA for Semb Corp using Benjamin Graham's formula Intrinsic Valuation

To counter verify the difference between Gordon DDM and Graham Formula, I have included Benjamin Graham using Original Intrinsic Value and Conservative Intrinsic Value, the results of those computation is

• Original Graham Intrinsic Value - SGD 5.75
• Conservative Graham's Intrinsic Value - SGD 4.72 

 May 16-20, TA for Sembcorp,

• Trend - UP, confirmation by MACD and 20D Moving Average
• Momentum - Oversold, Confirmed by Stochastic
• Candlestick - Harami + Hammer, indicate a possible bullish reversal.
• Support/Resistance Line - 5.51 and 5.15

A "good buy" signal, with 3 Indicators show Oversold, Price near Support, Harami with Hammer.

May 1-6, Performance Chart of STI, HangSeng, Dow Jones & S&P500

May 1-6, Performance Indexes (STI, HSI, DJI, S&P500)

In general, STI trail closely to DJI. For the past 1 week, STI is flat and HSI is down perform. STI flat can be easily explained by our Singapore General Election. On my last blog (GE vs STI - Past / Future) , clearly - stocks will be affected. Many speculators will take this opportunity to sell down or clear position. However, I do miss something about HSI, it is trailing downward? Why? Do keep watchout for May 9 election results.