TA for STI - Is the Bear still full of energy?

Is the bear losing it energy? Is it time for Long?

In my blog, I have been trying to analysis and trace Wave Movement and Fibonacci Retracement for our reference. Volume Analysis is an important aspect of determining the strength of the Bear Movement. Traditional Technical Indicators are lagging signal, it will only indicate to you a signal that is 1-2 days late.

For the last few weeks, I was pessimistic about the STI index as it exhibited negative signal. But now, looking back and analysis the Volume for the past 3 weeks - indicate that there is a high probability of a technical rebound of we might be near to our Bear Season.

Why I say so?
In every near-end of Bear Market, there will be a Surge + Peak on Selling Volume. You don't usually see such signal very often - I would say "Once in a BLUE moon". Breaking a Fibonacci resistance would need a Strong Sell Volume, it's not like a typical classical resistance where no volume could break it. The further it goes, the more the Surge Selling Volume will need to be generated. If the volume is only slightly above Weekly Average, the Bear is still very much in control. Thereby, entry is not that recommended.

Will the Volume indicators show us otherwise?
Yes, but it is at low probability, if you look at DJI at Oct,Nov 2008 and Feb 2009, the market is trying to push the index very low, but the Support is extremely strong and then on Feb 2009, a Very Strong Rebound occurred - that was the start of another Bull Run.

What will be the STI Support level?
- It should be at 2680. An average down strategy might be useful for fundamentalist, try only average down entry at next Fibo support - 2240.  

Aug 22-26, TA/FA for HwaHong

FA for HwaHong,

Simple FA - Quantitative Analysis,

• NAV - 0.319 (Not at Discounted NAV)
• PE - 6.6x ( EV/EBITDA = 0.68 vs PE 6.6x means overvalued)
• Yield - 4.945% (attractive yield)

Financial Ratio,

• - Current Ratio > 10 (Good)
• - Debt to Total Equity < 11% (Good) 

HwaHong has a good track record of constant performance, pretty easy to compute the Intrinsic value of the stock which value at 0.87 (based on Dividend Discount Model) or Graham quick Formula of 0.97. Even from Financial Ratio, very good and healthy company with plenty of Cash Flow. In short, from Financial Standpoint, they are a healthy company. 

From FA - Quality Analysis,

HwaHong is in multi-industry but primary income revenue is generated by the Sales of Investment Securities. From the Annual Report, pretty difficult to understand how they really make money - Where the Sales of Investment Securities come from. From business standpoint, I would suggest "So-so" company. 

From TA for HwaHong (weekly Chart)

Trend - Side

Momentum - Moderate

Support - 0.469 (Or Fibonacci Retracement at 78.6%)

Resistance - 0.52

From TA, this stock is testing the 0.469 support, once it breaks this support, it will test the next one at 0.40. 

Conclusion,

Yes, it is a well run company with good financial ratio. It is not a under value stock, but it's intrinsic value at 0.87-0.9 is there. Do note that the Ongs has a good history of trading their own stock - see the insider trading history. With Strong Cash Flow, it will not be surprise that they will support their own stock - as securities investment is part of their income revenue.  

Aug 19, TA for SIA

Aug 17, TA for SIA (Weekly)

• Trend - Downtrend,
• Momentum - Oversold
• Support - 11.29 (Fibo 50%)
• Resistance - 10.44 (Fibo 38.2%)
• Candlestick - Black Harami ( a weak bullish indicator)

It is still in Downtrending mode, chance is that it might meet its new support at 10.44. In this downtrending period - how to trade? Sell at Resistance, Buy at new support.

Aug 17, FA/TA for OUE

Aug 17, FA for OUE,
Using Simple FA-Quantitative Analysis,

• NAV - 0. 7421 (Discounted NAV)
• PE - 2.91x (It is really good value?)
• Yield - 1.7% (below Inflation Yield.)

From Financial Ratio,

• Current Ratio = 1.69 ( OK )
• Debt/Equity = 0.603 ( Reasonable )

If using PE < 8, OUE is definitely a good entry reference. But I would like to highlight to viewer that PE < 8 is just a general guide, the best way to evaluate PE valuation is using EV/EBITDA. From OUE, the EV/EBITDA is 2.18 (based on FY2010 result). So in general, this stock is still over-valued. 

From the Quarterly Report extraction - Positive News. 

Aug 17, TA for OUE,

• Trend - Downtrend,
• Momentum - Oversold
• Support - 2.38
• Support - 2.30. 
• Resistance - 2.81
• Candlestick - Inverted hammer (bullish)
• Volume - Above Average Selling Pressure.

At the moment, there is no cross over signal or a bullish reversal. Be careful, if it breaks 2.30, as it is the past classical support - means Support Turn Resistance = Very bearish signal.

Aug 17, TA for STI (A dead Cat Bounce?)

TA for STI, DJI, S&P, HSI Comparison Chart

A "Dead Cat Bouncing" or a "Flag Down" signal? Indices around the regions show a technical rebound with decreasing volume - look carefully at the arrow. These are signs of Bearish pattern formation. A good rebound should be gaining momentum with volume and not the reverse. STI has a nice hammer at the support (indicate a rebound) but today, it finished with a nice Black Engulfing (indicate a reverse). If you are on a LONG position. Watchout for STI 2793 support, if broken - a prolong "wave C" down trend might be forming.

Aug 15, TA for STI

TA for STI,

• Trend - Down (MACD - 4R1G (Bullish Reversal)
• Momentum - Oversold, Stochastic cross-over (Bullish Reversal)
• Support - 2789
• Resistance - 2937
• Candlestick - Bullish black hammer at 2789. (Bullish Reversal)
• Volume - 2x

  Since 2 Aug, STI had lost about 12%. From TA, we have finally confirmed some position bullish signal from MACD, Candlesticks and Momentum. If you are shorting STI stocks (like me), you might want to withdraw your tactic - Buy at Support. At 2937 Resistance, do watch your position - as it is the Gap Down Resistance.
  During this volatility period, do watchout the DJI at 10,720 (Support). Breaking this Support - indicates Formation of Wave C "Down Wave" - usually, it will be the longer fall.
  Looking at across the performance indices, signal seems to be calm and flat.