May30-Jun3, TA for IndoAgr

June 2-3, TA for IndoAgr

To supplement the previous blog, the new support is 1.63 and 2 white soldier candlestick is forming with above average volume support. 

May 30-Jun3, TA for IndoAgr,

• Trend - Down 
• Momentum - Oversold
• Resistance - 1.71
• Classical Historical Support 1 - 1.65
• Classical Historical Support 2 - 1.56
• Chart Pattern - A possible formation of 'Flag Down', indicates a possible 1.45 level to test. 
• Candlestick - Inverted Hammer - Possible a slight pullback.

From TA Indicators, all signal strong bearish and a possible Flag down formation. 1.45 level seems to be quite aligned with Analysts Fair Valuation after the PT Indofood IPO pricing. If you are thinking it is cheap to enter, it might goes cheaper.

May 30-June 3 - TA for STI Index

May 30 - Jun 3, TA for STI Index

• Trend - Narrow Side Trending
• Momentum - Flat for Stochastic and RSI
• Classical Resistance/Support - 3170 / 3092
• Moving Average - I called it the "Moving Average Squeeze".  
• Bollinger Band - Trending into a bollinger Squeeze.
• Candlestick - Inverted Hammer (bearish reversal signal)
• Volume - Slight below averag

From TA STI Index, Monday-23May, a strong sell down, thereafter flat. In general, it's a flat week agan. As long as it is still trading along 3170/3100, index will be flat and boring.

From the performance Index HSI, STI and DJI - It's flat for STI and DJI except HSI stage a strong recovery, so indexes are co-relating each others again.

May 30-June 3 - TA for AscendasIndT

May 30 - TA for AscendasIndiaTrust

Trend - Side Trending and trading above 200D MA 

Momentum - Overbought 

Resistance - 0.95

Support - 0.91.

AscendasIndiaTrust - Those REIT stock are side trending stock. Now at resistance line, time to time. 

May 25-27, FA/TA for NOL

From TA indicators -

• Trend - Down 
• - Confirmation by MACD -ve and 
• Officially down when 50D Moving Average (MA) is below 100D, 100D below 200D. With such signals, traders will likely to SHORT it then to LONG it. 
• Price below Ichimoku Cloud -indicate Down trend. 
• Momentum - Average @ 50% range. 
• Classical Support  - 1.92. 
• Classical Resistance - 1.92
• Candlestick (24/5) - inverted hammer - bullish reversal.
• Volume - Low. 

From TA prospective, this is one stock that you can borrow a scripts and start to SHORT it. It has been trying very hard to break the 20D MA and it don't need average trade volume to break its support line. 

From TA prospective, if you are holding it, you might want to re-consider your holding strategy. In this aspect, you need to do your money management rules - read the blog. 

From FA- Quantitative Analysis, to invest in a stock, what you want to look out for,

1. For constant growth stocks - This will allow us to compute intrinsic Value - this is not the case for NOL. 
2. For unstable growth stock - If it has a year of loses, you will need to use PEx or NAV or yielding as your entry guide. I have attached 2 more PE comparison and Yielding comparison for your reference. 
1. If you use Graham Fast rule, PE at 8x. It is not a bad entry. 
2. If you use Yielding as your reference, 2.5% vs 2.8% inflation. Not a good choice.
3. If you use NAV, as your refence - 1.55. It is not a discount NAV.

When such scenario occurred, it is better to avoid such stock and play TA strategy to safe guard your investment fund. If you still insist to invest, it is better to use FA- Qualitative Analysis - read up the business and understand the industry trend. 

I have attached a list of so called "Analysts Research" recommendation. It is up to you to believe those number. 

News update,

125 GMT [Dow Jones] NOL (N03.SG) is down 1.6% at S$1.87 after the container shipper posts a 1Q net loss of US$9.7 million (vs a net loss of US$98.5 million in 1Q 2010 and net profit of US$177 million in 4Q 2010). Deutsche Bank says the results were disappointing, worse than its and market expectations, caused by rate declines and cost increases (fuel). "We think our 2011 earnings forecast (US$351 million) and street consensus (US$387 million) look too optimistic given the losses in 1Q." The house also notes trans-pacific annual contract negotiations should complete over the next few weeks "and we do not expect a favourable outcome for NOL. We would not be surprised if 2Q results are worse than 1Q for NOL and the entire industry." On valuations, it says "the stock is trading at 1.1X 2011E P/B, "which we think is not compelling given the material decline in earnings that is likely this year." It keeps its Sell recommendation and S$1.66 target price. (matthew.allen@dowjones.com)

May 13 - FA for AscendasIndiaTrust

May 12 - FA/TA for AscendasIndiaTrust

FA - Quantitative Analysis -

• PE - 19x
• EPS - 0.048
• NAV - 0.8
• Yield - 7.1%

AscendasIndiaTrust - Nett Asset Value is at 0.80, now it is trading 20% above NAV value. Of course, it is not really a value investing, but it has interesting yield of 7.1%.  This stock is interesting to buy when it is around 0.91-0.905. I will explain it in my TA part.

May 30 - June 3, TA for Cosco Corp

June 2-3, TA for Cosco Corp 

• Trend - as indicated below,
• Momentum - as indicated below
• Support line - 1.90 ( good entry)
• Resistance - 2.03 (200D MA) - 2.05 Classical 
• Candlestick - Gap Down with mini hammer (bullish reversal signal)

This is a very good entry at 1.90 as it has very strong support. In general, Cosco Corp is trailing along the 200D MA. I have made my entry at 1.90 and see whether it will at least meet the 200D MA. Fundamentally, this stock should be up but technically it is trailing the reverse. 

TA for Cosco Corp,

Trend - Trend Reversal (Side Trend) - Price below 200D MA
Momentum - Oversold
Resistance - 2.00 (aligned with 200D MA) and 2.05 (classical resistance)
Support - 1.89 (new support formed)
Volume - 2X selling pressure
Candlestick - NA

Cosco Corp - As I mentioned on my previous blog on Cosco, this 2.05 is an important support line. Once broken, it will fall hard.

After the Monday fall, the stock is resisting along the 200D MA. It has bad news and also coupled with rigs win news. Thereby, stock has mixed signal. It will be getting difficult to trade CoscoCorp as it will wig-saw.

May 23-26, TA for IndoAgri - Catching the "failling knife"

TA for IndoAgri,

Trend - Down trending (50D below 100D below 200D confirmation, MACD -ve range)
Momentum - Oversold
Price to Volume Trend - heavy sell down.
Volume - 9x, Panic Selling
Candlestick - 1 black soldier (falling knife)
Support - 1.58, 1.41

I share the news on IndoAgr that I extracted. It's like a "falling knife", in theory never catch a falling knife, as you will not know what is the support level. From the last classical support, it will be 1.41 and 1.58. This also co-aligned with the analysts report of 1.42. Note, it is a down trending stock. If you LONG it, you might see your stock value decreasing over time. So my advice, - just use TA to trade.

News Update,

147 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK Call: CIMB downgrades Indofood Agri Resources (5JS.SG) to Underperform from Outperform and cuts its target price to S$1.94 from S$2.73, based on 12X forward P/E from 14.5X, to account for the shareholding dilution after the plantation company says its PT SIMP subsidiary will be listed at IDR1,100 per share share vs its IDR1060-IDR1700/share indicative price range. The house says it's negative on the news "as: 1) the offer price represents only 8X P/E; 2) earnings dilution is higher than expected; and 3) the implied value for IFAR is only S$1.42 or 30% below its current share price." It adds "we are disappointed with its plan to proceed with the listing despite the low offer price for SIMP. Potential de-rating catalysts are a stock overhang following the listing and higher-than-expected earnings dilution. We advise investors to switch to Golden Agri." CIMB notes its target P/E for Indofood represents a 20% discount vs its Golden Agri (E5H.SG) target P/E. Indofood Agri is down 7.8% at S$1.88 in active trade; the orderbook tips S$1.85 support. (matthew.allen@dowjones.com)

0627 GMT [Dow Jones] Indofood Agri Resources (5JS.SG) extends its fall, down 15.7% at S$1.72 (its lowest price since November 2009) with over 53 million shares traded, as the market reacts to news its subsidiary PT SIMP prices its Indonesian IPO at IDR1,100/share, at the lower end of the IDR1,060-IDR1,700/share indicative price range. JPMorgan, which has a Neutral rating on Indofood, says the IPO price implies that the deal is being priced at 10.4X FY11E P/E, against Indofood Agri's FY11E P/E of 11.8X and the current Indonesia CPO sector average of 12.9X/11.5X for FY11E/FY12E. It says based on its calculations, "the PT SIMP IPO is valuing IndoAgri at just S$1.41 per share," around a 30% discount to its close Friday, before factoring in any upcoming M&A and any holding company discount. It adds, the US$408 million IPO proceeds would be just sufficient for its planned debt repayment of US$200 million and capex of around US$200 million. "IndoAgri's share price may remain an underperformer in the near term." (matthew.allen@dowjones.com)

May 23-27, Head & Shoulder Formation for SembMar,SembCorp,KepCorp

May 23-27, TA for SembCorp, SembMar, KepCorp

Very rarely, you can do "3 in 1" for a similar industry.  

Trend - Trend Reversal from Up Trend. MACD - 9D signal approaching the 0 line. (signal a confirmation of Reversal (from UP to Side Trend).

Momentum - All are oversold (indicated by Stochastic)

Support - All prices are sitting on the Support line

Resistance - See the respective line.

Chart Pattern - "Head and Shoulder" Formation (this is something to watch out for!) 

Very Rarely, you can do a "3 in 1" TA for a similar Industry. This is a typical example. However, what I would like you to watch out or be careful is the formation of "head and shoulder" pattern. This is a reversal pattern formation, indicate that if the support line is broken - it will fall 2x support line from the existing line. This formation has high probability and well-noted by traders. 

Another observation, all 3 charts - momentum are indicating a "divergence" which means - the support is getting weaker. If you are reading my blog, I hope you can be extremely careful - don't LONG it or try to do "Counter-Swing" strategy.  

Articles to read, 

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_t