Aug 6, Are we heading for a real Correction?

I would like to show my viewers on What is Wave Theory?
It is a predictive technical model to estimate the macro trend momentum. Each Wave (A,B,C and 1,2,3,4,5) represents a specific time frame of the index movement. Each wave will take months to see clearly. Thereby, patience is needed to see this formation.

What is important to highlight is that the 50% retracement of the Wave Length. In theory, using fibonacci  retracement lines, it should breaks 2 support and retrace back 1 support, then continuous to break upward 2 supports and retrace back 1 support. Some even mention about the length of the wave length, but in this case, I uses Fibonacci as my reference lines.

What to take notes in Dow Jones Index, when there was a continuous long candlesticks (see above chart). The down trend wave will break "retribution support line".

In the last 2 weeks,  DJI starts to have this symptom, it broke the support line and touched the Fibo's retracement 78.6% line. This might be the start of "Wave A" Formation.

Read Faber's Comment :  http://www.cnbc.com/id/44031717

If you believe this wise man advice, and you think the Wave Formation of this chart makes sense to you.
You should "SELL at Resistance" when there is a rebound, gradually reduce your position.

Aug 3, TA For SATS

TA for SATS,

• Trend - Side -> Down (bearish)
• Momentum - Oversold (bearish)
• Support - 2.37
• Resistance - 2.51
• Candlestick - Gap Down - black Marubuzo (bearish)
• Volume - 3x

SATS is another Falling Knife, looking back into any change in Fundamental - which I do not see any nor any Analysts Downgrade of this stock. It should be the effect of SIA curse.

Warning : Don't Touch this stock. Think of Buy Low, it will get lower.

If you need to enter, at least - ensure that it is confirmed at support with a bullish candlestick.

Aug 2, FA/TA for SIA

Research Analysts Rating Downgrade on 2 Aug,

• Citi - $12.00
• BofA - $11.25
• MS - $13.60

Very disappointing - Profit and Loss as compared to QoQ. 

Very Strong Cash Flow Position at S$7.5billions

Comparison of Year to Year over 4 years period

Aug 2, FA for SIA,

• EPS - 0.037 for Q1, (Assuming constant value - 0.16 for FY2011)
• NAV - 11.90
• Yield - 4.7%

For FA-Quantitative Analysis, we can use NAV as simple reference or EV/EBITDA. But for this example, I skip EV/EBITDA - as it will need to compare PE to be meaningful. 

Conclusion for FA - SIA - only attractive when it hits below NAV - 11.90 (aligned with BofA and Citi Recommendation - as FAIR)

Aug 2-5, TA for SIA

• Trend - Down (Bearish)
• Momentum - Oversold (Bearish)
• Support - 12.00
• Resistance - 12.90
• Candlestick - Gap Down (Bearish)
• Volume - 5x (Selling Pressure)

I have shown a weekly TA chart instead of daily, as daily is useless for "Falling Knife". What I want to emphasize on this chart is, 

How EPS Earning affects Share Price? 

Basically, it has no meaning for SIA. In FY 2009, SIA EPS is at 0.18 but share price went up from $8-$16 (approximately 90%). 

Warning: Do not touch "Falling Knife" Stock. 

Only enter when the Share price has stabilized or trend into Side. 

Aug 1-5, TA/FA for Cosco (Insider trading Prior to News Releases)

Cosco News Released by 7pm. Cosco Stock since morning is like a "falling knife". Drop 4.7%

TA for Cosco,

• Trend - Side (it will need a few more days to confirm the Down Trend)
• Momentum - Moderate Downward
• Support - 1.62
• Resistance - 1.72
• Candlestick - 1 black LONG candlestick
• Volume - 4x 

An obvious "Insider News" prior to news release, Cosco is like a "falling knife" in a bullish environment. Don't touch this stock until a clear TA signal or Analysts Research is reported.

Aug 1-3, TA Stocks Screener (SELL) Signal

Aug 1-3, TA Screeners (Bearish - SELL) Signal.

For REGISTER MEMBER Only, I have screened the TA for Strong Exit Signal. In general, It is easy to screen for Bearish Signal than Bullish.