June 20-24, FA/TA for NOL

TA for NOL,

Trend - Down
Momentum - Down
Support - 1.51
Resistance - 1.61
Volume - Slight Above Average
Candlestick - NA

From TA prospective, this is a lousy stock as indicated by my previous blog. Nothing bullish reversal is going to happen soon. But I would like to highlight the FA.

FA for NOL,

Since the start of NOL blog, I do not see any FA and TA advantage for NOL. But this round, I would like my viewer to take note of the Value Investing for NOL.

• NAV - 1.60 (now trading at 12% discount NAV, provide a safety net of 12%)
• PE - 6.6x ( now trading at attractive PE ratio at 6 - if using Benjamin Graham, simple entry rules - Earning Approach.)
• Yield - 2.9% or 0.02/share. (Yielding - not that attractive)

Historically, from TA prospective, the lowest is around 1.20-1.50 range in Oct 2009 to May 2010. So you should setup a value watch list for this stock, once there is any bullish reversal detected from TA.

FA - Qualitative Analysis,

HPH Trust (Port Operator - down from 1.07 to 0.805 - trading 20% discount NAV) and those shipping liners (NOL) are undergo a strong round of correction due to the poor economy forecast on shipping line coupled with high oil prices and more ships being built. This will marginalize profit.

June 20-24, TA/FA for IndoAgri

TA for IndoAgri,

Trend - Down
Momentum - Oversold
Volume - below Average
Candlestick - NA
Resistance - 1.62
Support - 1.51

This IndoAgri is in prolonged downtrend coupled with poor valuation of it subsidiary IPO called "SIMP". Since the IPO of SIMP, SIMP share has declined -8.8% as compared to IndoAgri of 13.20%.
A result of imbalance Fundemental PEx valuation coupled with poor market sentiment, this stock has good chance for SHORT or borrow scripts - to SELL.

June 20-24, FA for IndoAgri,

PE - 10x (If compare to GoldenAgri at 4.8X and FirstRes (11x)
NAV - 1.15
Price to Book Ratio - x1.33
EPS - 0.14497
Yield - 0%

From Fundamental Analysis, this stock has no dividend yield and we can use Asset Approach to quickly value it's pricing. As long as it doesn't fall below or equal to NAV at S$1.15, this stock has no safety net for investor.



Analysts News update,

18 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CLSA initiates Indofood Agri Resources (5JS.SG) at Sell with a S$1.31 target price, implying 16.6% downside and recommends switching to Golden Agri-Resources (E5H.SG). After the recent IPO of Indofood's subsidiary PT Salim Ivomas Pratama (SIMP.JK), which means all operating assets are now also listed in Indonesia, the house says "it is difficult to see how SIMP's IPO is value-accretive for IFAR. New shares issued at IDR1,100 imply a 31% discount to IFAR at pricing; IFAR shares have fallen 20% since, while SIMP has risen 11% post-IPO, effectively representing a transfer of value from IFAR to SIMP." It adds, with IFAR still trading at a premium to SIMP, IFAR selling looks to continue as SIMP offers the same assets at lower valuations. The house says "we anticipate further stock de-rating based on a holding company discount." It notes Indofood's share price has corrected 45% YTD, and is trading at 12.2X calendar 2012 vs 10.8X for Golden Agri. Shares closed down 2.5% at S$1.57. (matthew.allen@dowjones.com)

June 20-24, TA for Olam

June 20-24, TA for Olam,

• Trend - Down (below 200D, 100D, 50D MA)
• Momentum - Oversold
• Candlestick - white hammer (bullish reversal signal)
• Volume - Slight below average
• Support - 2.53
• Resistance - 2.67

After the Olam share dilution at 2,60, this stock just continues to go down. Personally, the fundamental support at 2.60 should be strong but the selling pressure just keep up. Things to take note: it does not have above average selling pressure - indicate a possible bullish reversal trending with white hammer candlestick. Should stay NEUTRAL for this stock and watch out for stronger signal.

June 20-24, TA for KepCorp

TA for KepCorp

• Trend - Side Trending (MA is still in trending upslope while MACD indicates bearish reversal) 
• Momentum - Oversold 
• Support - 10.29 (trending toward the 200D MA support)
• Resistance - 11 (co-exist with 100D MA resistance)
• Candlestick - NA
• Volume - slight above average volume

After a week of reversal trending, KepCorp is near to it support range 10.29. Should neutral your position at support and wait for another breakout at 10.29 for SHORT or a slight PULLBACK.

TA for STI, for Jun 20-24

TA for STI, June 20-24,

• Trend - Downtrend (index below 200D MA, 9D/26D below MACD -ve range) 
• Momentum - Oversold (confirmed by RSI and Stochastic)
• Volume - slightly Above Average (Indicate good anticipation on selling)
• Candlestick - 2 black crows ( indicate bearish momentum)
• Support - 2935
• Resistance - 3100

Overall the TA for STI is bearish and no sign of bullish reversal. Most likely, STI will test the support line at 2940. Most stocks after one week of downtrending, some have already found its new support line.  Those at support, you have to be careful and wait for the STI to break through 2940, to continue your SHORT position. There might be some temporary pull back, index went off too fast away from 200D MA.  To long now is not a good idea - as "Trend is your friend".

From Performance Indices, we can see that HSI is the worst performing and selling pressure is huge. DJI and S&P500 are having little pullback effects after weeks of downtrending, but personally, the 200D MA is to watch - if DJI and S&P 500 break it. Then everything, will fall.