May 1-6, General Election vs STI (Past and Future)

May 1-6, How General Election will affect the STI?

April 25-29 - STI seems to be flat. It can't break through 3200. Why? Maybe, it is important to study the past general election sentiment before we try to anticipate what sorts of movement will affect the STI movement in the next 2 weeks (at least - after May 9)

Study the Past - General Election
1. On 2001 Nov 3 - PAP won 82/84 seats with strong mandate by people. (see my picture above - STI gains 34% upside over a period of 3 months)
2. On 2006 May 6 - PAP won 82/84 seats with opposition contests half of the seats, but this round, it won lesser votes. (see my picture above - STI lost 14% in 1 month)

What we happens after May 9, 2011 - STI Index?
- With opposition contesting strongly on 82/87 seats,

• Scenario 1, the PAP supporting votes will be lesser. (So probability - STI might lose 14% or less - if history repeat itself .)
• Scenerio 2, 1 or more GRC  or a few SMC are lost. (high probability - STI might lose more than 14%

From Fundamental Analysis standby, any economic / Industry changes - market will have approximate 15% up and down movement. 

Personally, Opposition Rally are stirring lots of emotion sentiment (just like our Technical Analysis - driven by emotion and sentiment ) and address those sensitive common issues (just like our Fundamental Analysis - getting the number correct) than PAP might have neglected. With Work Party - contesting strongly with their "A" team, giving Singaporeans a do/die mandate. Maybe, you might want to go for a small holiday and avoid participating any stocks for the time being.  

Apr 28 - TA for Hang Seng Index

Apr 28 - TA for Hang Seng Index
Trend - Up
Momentum - Moderate
Candlestick - 2 black crows forming at the 20D Moving Average, indicates a possible bearish reversal trend for HSI. Index might hits the 50D MA.

Apr 28 - TA for SGX

Apr 28 - TA for SGX,

Trend - Entering Down Trend (from MACD indicator)
Momentum - Oversold
Support - 7.85
Resistance - 8.42
Candlesticks - 3 black crows forming.

SGX has been on my watch list for short term trading. However, it is forming a 3 black crows candlesticks. Probability a bearish reversal might occur. If breaks the 7.85 support, then support turn resistance.

Apr 27-29, FA/TA for GoldenAgr (Price below NAV)

Apr 27-29, FA for GoldenAgr

FA - Quantitative Analysis for GoldenAgr
NAV - 0.709 (Price below NAV)
PE - 4.6 (at attractive PE of 4)
Yield - 1.1% (less than SGP inflation of 2.8% in 2010)

Currently, Golden Agri is the only palm Oil stock that is trading below it's NAV and with a low PE ratio of 4. Golden Agri can be classified as Asset Class where NAV can be used as it's base for reference. It has an improved ROE and ROA ratio. If you compare GoldenAgr with other Palm Oil, it is a value stock to buy in at below NAV.

Apr 27-29, TA for GoldenAgr,

Trend : Down Trend (Trending near 200D Moving Average)
Momentum : Oversold at 20% range
Candlestick : doji forming at 200D MA, might be forming it Higher LOW
Support 1: 0.68 (Do watchout for support turn resistance now)
Support 2: 0.63
Resistance : 0.72

Golden Agr is trading below NAV and is testing the 200D MA. Do watch out for a possible rebound along the 200D MA.

Apr 25-29 - FA / TA for Swiber

Apr 25 -29 - FA for Swiber

Quantitative Analysis for Swiber
- EPS - 0.09492
- NAV - 0.8596
- Dividend - NA.

For simple FA approach, we can use Asset with Earning Approach to estimate the FA entry for this stock. Swiber is running offshore oil rigs exploration and installation with 50 vessels in 2010 and 5 more to be delivered in 2012. As of 25 April, the price 0.83 is below NAV. So a slight discount of the NAV. If you assess the stock using earning approach, we are seeing a year by year decreasing in EPS. Using Benjamin Graham's entry approach, PE of 8x which compute to be 7.59 as good entry. Some analysts have put this stock as "neutral".

Apr 25-29, TA for Swiber
- Trend - In side trend mode. (Price inside the ichimoku's cloud).
- Momentum - Oversold at 20%. Divergences detected - possibly a price upside.
- Price to Volume Trend - Look carefully at PVT 3mllions @ 0.955 vs 3.6millions@0.84-0.90. It indicates some accumulation at lower price.
- Candlestick - NA.
- Resistance Line - 0.89
- Support Line - 0.765
 

Apr 25-29 - FA / TA for AscottREIT

Apr 25-29 - FA for AscottREIT, Price below NAV
NAV - 1.26
Yield - 6.15% (above SGP Inflation of 2.8%)
EPS - 0.139,
PE - 8.7X

AscottREIT is an income generating stock, it has a strong earning come back on FY2010 with EPS  0.139 as compared to FY2008(-EPS 0.0375 / FY2009(EPS: -0.0188). NAV has increased from 0.7344 (FY2009) to 1.26 (FY2010).  On the 30 March, Temask Holdings have bought in 261,353 lots at 1.20 (held 49.49%). So you might want to watch this counter for your yielding.

Apr 25-29 - TA for AscottREIT,
Trend : Bullish Reversal Detection, MACD cross the +ve range.
Momentum : Moderate.
Candlestick : Gap up with one white soldier - hope to get 2nd white soldier on Apr 25-26.
Volume : 3x more
Support at 1.15
Resistance 1 at 1.21 (lookout for Resistance turn support)
Resistance 2 at 1.26 (same as NAV value)
Stochastic divergence detected - thereby a possible price up.

Apr 25-29 - Dow Jones Index vs US Banks performance

Apr 25-29, Why the US banks are not trending along with DJI?
Recently, I read one of the forum discussion on this observation. If you look at DJI trending, it is an up trending momentum. However, the US banks and famous Warren Buffet's Berhshire Hathaway Class A share are underperforming. Why the US banks and Berhshire shares are underperforming along the DJI? Is there any financial crisis forming? Is Wall streets investment firms slowly existing their portfolios? Is the recent downgrade of US debts affected those investment firms? Is the recent weakening of the US Dollars force them to exist the investment banks? Do watch out for the next few weeks on these shares movement, as you will not like to be caught in another financial crisis.

Apr 25-29 - STI Index Trend

Apr 25-29 - Technical Analysis for STI Trend
Trend - Up (confirmation with MACD +ve range ) or Side trend along 100D MA.
Momentum - >50%, moderate well support.
Candlestick - 2 white soldiers - bullish reversal
Volume - High volume above average 20Days Moving Average
Support - 3180 - (resistance turn support - signal of strong momentum)
Resistance - 3228
Historical Resistance - 3311 (3.3% from 3196 to 3311 - Watchout for this range)

STI is performing very well last week, a doji candlestick is formed on the higher LOW, then a 2 white soldier with high volume on Thursday and Friday. Now, it is turning resistance to support. If you are planning to enter the market, do watch out for the resistance line - 3228 and 3311 (historically resistance - 3.3% from 3196). Good luck for next week trading.