Apr 21 - FA/TA for Gallant

FA - Qualitative Analysis of Gallant,
A quick breakdown of its revenue contribution
1- Utilities - 35%
2- Industries - 24%
3- Resort - 1%
4- Property - 22%

FA - Quantitative Analysis,
EPS - 0.004
PEx - 118
NAV - 0.516
Yield - N.A.

Gallant can be classified as Asset Approach Analysis, thereby NAV valuation can be used as reference. With current price below NAV, it looks pretty attractive to invest from a value investment standpoint. Gallant is the only infrastructure provider for the island, another monopolistic company.

However, one of my concern  is the poor Earning yield or PEx 118. If you look into the Return Of Asset at 1.9%. Simple Calculation, at this rate, it will take >100 years to recover those investment. The stock has some volatility and 2 analysts houses have recommended a BUY. So Price below NAV is valid but PE at 118x. I need to seriously consider those reports to long this stock.

FA - Entry / Exit Strategy
Using Benjamin Graham's Entry Rule - NAV at 66% = 0.34
Using BG Exit Rule - NAV at 150% - 0.75

TA - Entry / Exit Strategy for Gallant,
Trend : Up
Momentum : > 60% (moderate good momentum)
Price to Volume Trend : Strong Peak or Price/Volume Movement detected.
Candlestick signal : NA
Resistance at 0.505
Support at 0.46

Apr 19 - FA - Quantitative Analysis - Asset+Income Approach

FA - Quantitative Analysis

In today market, there are not many asset classes that have share price falls below the Net Asset Value "NAV". In general, they are classified as "Under Value" stock. Interestingly, this asset category stock will generate a dividend. The challenge of today world is to select investment that at least beat the inflation.

If you are planning to apply Benjamin Graham's value investment, they are definitely not our selection choice. As it highlights Value investment at asset approach needs to be at least 66% of NAV.

FA - Qualitative Analysis

This is warren buffet's Qualitative Analysis approach, you will need to read and understand their business. In fact, this is the hardest for anyone as you need to be an industry expert and understand the business itself.

FA - Entry and Exit Strategy

Before you use any FA to enter, it's important that you understand what stock valuation you are using. Income, Dividend, Earning or Crisis buying. For this example, we will use Asset Valuation as entry. Logically, it makes sense to enter as long as it is "under-value". This "under value" stock is already a discount to you, if you are planning to hold long term.

Apr 19 - OSIM ( Lifestyle + tea leaves = what mixed? )

Apr 19 - FA for OSIM, 
News:

Mr Sim's OSIM International, the lifestyle products group best known for its

massage chairs, said that it had acquired a 35 per cent equity stake in TWG

Tea Company Pte Ltd for $31.36 million. Also: the two companies will set up

a joint venture (JV) - OSIM-TWG (North Asia) - of which OSIM will be a 60

per cent majority shareholderCash on Hand and Debt-free,
   Jan-11, Co's cash & cash equivalents totalled $73m at the end of Dec-10
But at PE of 27 and NAV at 0.15. Is it over-value? A lot of analysts have rated it as BUY recommend. With the acquisition of tea leaves company, how the market responds? 


Apri 19 - TA for OSIM, 
let's watch the resistance line at 1.72, and the 3 support line 1.6, 1.48 and the strong support of 1.35. It is now trading at its 100D MA. 

Apr 18-21, FA+TA - SATS

Apr 18, FA - Sats - Quantitative Analysis,
EPS - 0.167 (Good stable earning growth)
PE - 15x (PE Ratio is on the high side, if you entry base on Benjamin Graham's PE (7-15x)
NAV - 1.355 ( you are buying at 80% above premium)
Yield - 5.1% (The yield is attractive!)
Sats - the up side is earning growth story is good and has an attractive yielding at 5.X%. The down side of the stock is the premium PE at 15x and NAV at 180%.

Apr 18, TA - Sats
Trend - Down (MACD confirmation at -ve range, trading below 200Days Moving Average).
Momentum - approaching oversold
Resistance - 2.65
Support line - 2.51
volume - below 20D MA
The stock is trading in Side Trending if you observe the resistance and support line. Entry can be done at support and exit at resistance or vice versa.

Combine FA + TA analysis,
If you have no entered, you might want to wait at next support level at 2.10. Historically, it shows high volume with strong support.
If you have entered, you might want to look out for support line at 2.51. If break, it might go further down to test a new low.

Apr 18-21, FA - Singapore REITS - Price Below NAV

From FA - Quantitative Analysis Prospective on REITS

1. Sabana with NAV at 0.99, yield est 8.4%, TA support at 0.93
2. Cambridge with NAV at 0.607, yield est 9.7%, TA support at 0.50
3. MacqIntInfra with NAV at 0.83, yield est 4.9%, TA support at 0.585, resistance at 0.62

These stocks are trading below their NAV, with good yield above inflation (assume 3%). At the moment, they pose a good entry base on fundamental Analysis - quantitative analysis. To complete your entry, you need to do your Qualitative Analysis understanding their business.

Apr 18-21 STI Index

STI Index
Trend : Side Trend along 100D MA
MACD : Above +ve range
Momentum : Above 80%, Overbought
Support : 3111
Resistance : 3179 (if break this range, you might see your stock goes higher. In a side trend mode, I am expecting it to form it new Higher LOW, then a re-entry will be good.  )
Volume : Slight below 20D MA for STI

Apr 18-21 Nikkei 225 Index

Nikkei 225 Index - 18-21 Apr

Trend : Down ( MACD -ve range confirmation)

Momentum : 55% range

Resistance : 9770

Support : 9336

Index are trending below the 200D Moving Average (MA), another sign of Down Trend. It needs to break the 9770 resistance to see some price movement for stocks.  

Apr 11-15, USD Dollar Index has break the new support of 75 and turn resistance, a new historical low is forming. If you trace USD Index to Gold and Silver, you can see the co-relation of these data movement.
Trend : MACD - Below the -ve range means Downtrend.
Momentum : Oversold. (RSI below 30%)

Apr 11-15, Commodity Gold

Gold has break it resistance of 1446 and turn support, now testing new resistance at 1476.
Trend: MACD indicator: Up
Momentum: 70% Overbought

Apr 11-15, Commodity Silver - break double resistance 36, 39

TA: Silver has break double resistance within weeks, now trading at above
1. support 39 and resistance 42.
2. Trend: MACD Indicator - Up trend
3. Momentum: Overbought