July 12-15, FA/TA for Amara

 July 12, TA for Amara

• Trend - Down
• Momentum - Oversold
• Resistance - 0.415 (weekly)
• Resistance - 0.40 (Daily)
• Support - 0.345
• Support - 0.285
• Volume - Low
• Candlestick - NA

As I mentioned before, TA is not effective against such low volatility stock. Just base on MA, it is clearly a downtrending stock. Maybe, it is important to use FA for your entry/exit reference

FA - Qualitative Analysis,

Why Revenue has dropped but yet Profit has improved?
- From the annual report 2010, this is due to the Property Project completion and risks are transferred to buyer.

Overall, I will leave it to you for industry analysis. At least, it assumes us that there is no surprise accounting.

July 12, Simple FA-Quantitative Analysis for Amara

• NAV - 0.3415 (not yet a discounted NAV)
• Yield - 1.3% (low yield)
• PE - 13x (not an attractive PE)

From a simple FA entry/exit, Amara is not yet an attractive stock to enter.

Using Intermediate FA - Intrinsic Valuation,

- DDM value for Amara is at 0.40-0.50 range
- Graham Intrinsic Valuation is at 0.40-0.51 range

Intrinsic valuation is base on future earning growth rate, it can be used for future estimation of future earning. In this case, at current value of 0.375 - it is at least below 0.40 - indicates a value ENTRY.

Using EV/EBITDA, it has a value of 20x. As mentioned in my blog, EV/EBITDA(20x) > PE (13x) is a ENTRY signal.

Conclusion,

From both TA/FA analysis, I will wait until the Price is stabilised as TA indicates further Downtrending.
When it hits the below NAV, the valuation of this stock is further enhanced.