TA for HSI - Wave Theory (aligned with Fibonacci)

I have relooked the Wave Formation for HSI and trying to align it with Fibonacci Retracement level.  In HSI wave formation, we can clearly see that it had broken 2x Fibonacci Retracement and touched the 3rd support. Initially, I was looking at the gradual formation of Wave B, but apparently, it just went pass the 2nd support 20,000 and drop near to 17,000. Initially, the formation looks like Wave C, but it needs to have a retracement at resistance level to be considered as one. At the moment, it is still missing in formation. Theoretically, this HSI is still in Wave A. The guesswork is now - whether it should have a technical rebound as shown in Wave B - looking for the resistance, before it plunges to Wave C.

Sept 29, TA for STI

Confused by all the European Investment Bonds news? It's a very mixed sentiment and momentum, where European Stocks become bullish and "doji" the next day. STI is trading on a black and white candle on an alternate days. How to trade? To refocus back on the downward trend line and the 2 short term support and resistance for your LONG or SHORT position. As long as STI is struggling to break away from 2700. We still need to watch this support.

Sept 26, TA for STI

Prior to the Global Sell-off on Wednesday, the STI is in narrow band with Descending Triangle Formation. In my LIVE chat, I constantly remind viewer the 2700 line, is that Market cannot afford to break it, as it aligned with a fibonacci support level of 61,8% (2589) and Classical Support of 2680.

Will the market gains momentum and swing up? From the technical chart, there is a strong downward channel trendline. It is aligned with the 20D MA resistance. Since then start of the fall, STI index is not quite successfully trend above the 20D MA. The downward channel will still persist for a period of time.  The little "white hammer" might signal a slight rebound. I would not advice you to catch the technical rebound as the higher HIGH is limited and restricted by MA. There will be more potential downside, as Market is deliberately wanted to test the support.

Another view of the STI in weekly chart, the ancient art of Fibonacci Retracement. You can see how market consciously/subconsciously meeting and settle down on those imaginary line. Thereby, it is important to watch those line when you trade. As it down more, there will be more value investing stocks for us to park your money there. There will be a limit those good value stock price will go further down.

Sept 20, TA/FA for Ausgroup

TA for Ausgroup,

• Trend - Side,
• Momentum - Moderate
• Support - 0.31,0.26
• Resistance - 0.37
• Volume - Surge in volume
• Candlestick - Engulfing

From the daily TA chart, Ausgroup is now near resistance. It is still trending at SIDE. Will it be able to reach a new high? The high volume is quite an interesting signal for us to look at it closely. But is it also important to track back the past TA for more information. 

From the Weekly TA chart, something important for us to take note is that very time, when there was a surge of high volume. Definitely, it will attract traders and subsequently, it goes down. it's quite an abnormal behaviour. So the history is now repeating itself? Will you trade for this stock? Or do you believe this company has a strong fundamental? Maybe, we should look at the Annual Report for FY 2011. How they make money?  

Looking at the simple FA,

• NAV - 0.39 ( slight discounted NAV)
• Yield - 1.73% (below inflation rate)
• PE - 10.6x (need to calculate EV/EBITDA for Fair PE estimation)

Personally, from the Finance highlight, this type of industry is high revenue but low margin business. It has poor cash flow generated from Operating Activities (-116%). The financial health of the company is not that fantastic.

My advice is to stay away from such stock, as it might be a trap for retail investors and the financial health of business nature is not that attractive.

Sept 19, TA for DJI

From the TA chart, you should be able to spot something interesting - an upward trendline formation - a bullish formation. So are we really into a bullish momentum?
Read the articles below from seekingalpha, in general, the 4 macro-economic issues are still unresolved. Furthermore, EU is approaching the mid of Oct Date to deliver to Greece 7th loan. A delay or poor assessment of Austerity performance might swing the index.
A lack of obvious economic catalyze to push the stock higher. One thing we need to take note, is the volume needed to push the index to a new high, we are now approaching 50D MA, Classical Resistance and also trendline resistance.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/294198-what-could-go-right-for-stocks
 I like this article as it reminds us of the 4 macro economic issue

• - Proactive European Policy - The Europe Disaster
• - Proactive US Policy - Decelerating Economy
• - US Super Community - To reduce US debts
• - Negative Business/Consumer Sentiment - weak economy 

It needs a catalyze to break the current resistance level.

A 5 days of continuous winning, what is the probability of a pullback?

data from seekingalpha

Sept 19, TA for STI

Sept 19, TA for STI

Trend - Down
Momentum - Oversold (stochastic)
14D Support - 2720
14D Resistance - 2886
Candle - NA
Volume - Average

From the daily chart of STI, you can see that it is forming a nice "Descending Triangle". It is being resisted by the downward trendline and 20D MA. Most of the time, it is trading near support. It can only be bullish if it can breaks through the 2880 resistance line, else downward pressure is still in tact.

From the weekly chart, the Wave formation + Fibonacci Retracement + Classical Support (2700) are a set of good reference to watch. Don't be too excited when the stocks move up, watch Mr STI - Macro movement.

Sept19, TA for OCBC

TA for OCBC,

• Trend - Down
• Momentum - Moderate
• 7D Support - 8.13
• 7D Resistance - 8.68 (take note of 20D resistance - they are aligned.)
• Candle - Gap Up
• Volume - 1.2X

How to trade OCBC?
From OCBC, it is forming a nice downward trendline. Price (16Sept) is now at the top of the trendline. You can also see "RSI divergence" (bullish reversal) but i think it has already completed the "Gap Up". Personally, I think OCBC is a potential SHORT than a LONG.