VIX of Dow Jones Index

A rarely phenomenon occurs only every 112 years.  
( from seeking alpha - The Dow Jones industrials fell 634.76 points, the first trading day since Standard & Poor's downgraded American debt. . It was the sixth-worst point decline for the Dow in the last 112 years and the worst drop since December 2008. Every stock in the Standard & Poor's 500 index declined Monday.)


Investopedia Says:
The first VIX, introduced by the CBOE in 1993, was a weighted measure of the implied volatility of eight S&P 100 at-the-money put and call options. Ten years later, it expanded to use options based on a broader index, the S&P 500, which allows for a more accurate view of investors' expectations on future market volatility. VIX values greater than 30 are generally associated with a large amount of volatility as a result of investor fear or uncertainty, while values below 20 generally correspond to less stressful, even complacent, times in the markets. 

Read more: http://www.answers.com/topic/vix-cboe-volatility-index#ixzz1UU0R8gSS

Aug 8-12, TA for STI

• Trend - DownTrend (Sudden Trend Swing)
• Momentum - Near to Oversold
• Support - 2939
• Resistance - 3000 (Support Turn Resistance - Bearish Signal)
• Candlestick - Doji (indecisive signal)
• Volume - 2x (Selling Pressure) 

Last Friday, signal is one of the fast and furious fell of the STI index. It's a sudden signal change caught lots of people by surprises. By then, most of the stocks were already at Support Level. So shorting at support level is dangerous, unless it breaks Support and Turn Resistance, then we can resume the Short position. In my forum, I have highlighted some industries that we can target the SHORT, if indices continuous it's down trending. In general, short those with poor Q2 results or price breaks support. 

Is it a good time to buy low?

- My opinion,

• Look at the PE < 8, NAV < 1 with Yielding (>3%) stocks only. (buy gradually only at every support. )
• Look at Current Ratio > at least more than 1, Debt / Equity - <30-40%. 
• Those without any value or so called "intrinsic Value", you should reduce your position gradually, if it keeps breaking supports. 
• Do look at my Forum - FA stocks screeners for some company that you can monitor. 

At this volatile period?

- My opinion, it is easier to trade than to invest, but the down trending will surface more value investing stocks in the horizon. 

Aug 6, Are we heading for a real Correction?

I would like to show my viewers on What is Wave Theory?
It is a predictive technical model to estimate the macro trend momentum. Each Wave (A,B,C and 1,2,3,4,5) represents a specific time frame of the index movement. Each wave will take months to see clearly. Thereby, patience is needed to see this formation.

What is important to highlight is that the 50% retracement of the Wave Length. In theory, using fibonacci  retracement lines, it should breaks 2 support and retrace back 1 support, then continuous to break upward 2 supports and retrace back 1 support. Some even mention about the length of the wave length, but in this case, I uses Fibonacci as my reference lines.

What to take notes in Dow Jones Index, when there was a continuous long candlesticks (see above chart). The down trend wave will break "retribution support line".

In the last 2 weeks,  DJI starts to have this symptom, it broke the support line and touched the Fibo's retracement 78.6% line. This might be the start of "Wave A" Formation.

Read Faber's Comment :  http://www.cnbc.com/id/44031717

If you believe this wise man advice, and you think the Wave Formation of this chart makes sense to you.
You should "SELL at Resistance" when there is a rebound, gradually reduce your position.

Aug 3, TA For SATS

TA for SATS,

• Trend - Side -> Down (bearish)
• Momentum - Oversold (bearish)
• Support - 2.37
• Resistance - 2.51
• Candlestick - Gap Down - black Marubuzo (bearish)
• Volume - 3x

SATS is another Falling Knife, looking back into any change in Fundamental - which I do not see any nor any Analysts Downgrade of this stock. It should be the effect of SIA curse.

Warning : Don't Touch this stock. Think of Buy Low, it will get lower.

If you need to enter, at least - ensure that it is confirmed at support with a bullish candlestick.

Aug 2, FA/TA for SIA

Research Analysts Rating Downgrade on 2 Aug,

• Citi - $12.00
• BofA - $11.25
• MS - $13.60

Very disappointing - Profit and Loss as compared to QoQ. 

Very Strong Cash Flow Position at S$7.5billions

Comparison of Year to Year over 4 years period

Aug 2, FA for SIA,

• EPS - 0.037 for Q1, (Assuming constant value - 0.16 for FY2011)
• NAV - 11.90
• Yield - 4.7%

For FA-Quantitative Analysis, we can use NAV as simple reference or EV/EBITDA. But for this example, I skip EV/EBITDA - as it will need to compare PE to be meaningful. 

Conclusion for FA - SIA - only attractive when it hits below NAV - 11.90 (aligned with BofA and Citi Recommendation - as FAIR)

Aug 2-5, TA for SIA

• Trend - Down (Bearish)
• Momentum - Oversold (Bearish)
• Support - 12.00
• Resistance - 12.90
• Candlestick - Gap Down (Bearish)
• Volume - 5x (Selling Pressure)

I have shown a weekly TA chart instead of daily, as daily is useless for "Falling Knife". What I want to emphasize on this chart is, 

How EPS Earning affects Share Price? 

Basically, it has no meaning for SIA. In FY 2009, SIA EPS is at 0.18 but share price went up from $8-$16 (approximately 90%). 

Warning: Do not touch "Falling Knife" Stock. 

Only enter when the Share price has stabilized or trend into Side. 

Aug 1-5, TA/FA for Cosco (Insider trading Prior to News Releases)

Cosco News Released by 7pm. Cosco Stock since morning is like a "falling knife". Drop 4.7%

TA for Cosco,

• Trend - Side (it will need a few more days to confirm the Down Trend)
• Momentum - Moderate Downward
• Support - 1.62
• Resistance - 1.72
• Candlestick - 1 black LONG candlestick
• Volume - 4x 

An obvious "Insider News" prior to news release, Cosco is like a "falling knife" in a bullish environment. Don't touch this stock until a clear TA signal or Analysts Research is reported.

Aug 1-3, TA Stocks Screener (SELL) Signal

Aug 1-3, TA Screeners (Bearish - SELL) Signal.

For REGISTER MEMBER Only, I have screened the TA for Strong Exit Signal. In general, It is easy to screen for Bearish Signal than Bullish.